Tērā pea ka tino kino te āhua ōhanga o te raruraru pūngao i puta mai i te pakanga i Ukraine ki a Rūhia me te Kotahitanga o Ūropi, ā, ka taea e ia te whakaiti i te noho hei mana nui i runga i te atamira o te ao. Ko te tikanga o tēnei nekehanga—kāore anō kia māramahia—ko te āhua nei kei te tere haere tātou ki tētahi ao bipolar e whakahaerehia ana e ngā mana nui e rua: arā, ko Haina me te Hononga o Amerika.

Ki te whakaarohia e tātou te wā i muri i te Pakanga Matao o te mana kotahi o te US i ahu mai i te tau 1991 ki te raruraru pūtea o te tau 2008, ka taea e tātou te whakaaro ko te wā mai i te tau 2008 ki Pēpuere o tēnei tau, i te wā i whakaekea ai a Ukraine e Rūhia, he wā o te maha o ngā whenua. I tere te tipu o Haina, engari ko te rahi ōhanga o te EU—me te tipu i mua i te tau 2008—i homai he kereme tika hei tētahi o ngā mana nui o te ao. Ko te whakaoranga ōhanga o Rūhia mai i te tau 2003 me te kaha tonu o te ope taua i whakatakoto i a ia ki te mahere. I whakanuia e ngā kaiārahi mai i New Delhi ki Berlin ki Moscow te maha o ngā whenua hei hanganga hou o ngā take o te ao.

Ko te pakanga pūngao tonu i waenganui i a Rūhia me te Hauāuru te tikanga kua mutu te wā o te maha o ngā wehenga. Ahakoa e kore e memeha ngā patu karihi a Rūhia, ka kitea e te whenua he hoa iti iho i te ao mana e arahina ana e Haina. I taua wā, ko te pānga iti o te raruraru pūngao ki te ōhanga o Amerika ka waiho hei whakamarie makariri mō Washington i te taha tōrangapū: Ko te memeha o Ūropi ka whakaiti i te mana o te Hononga o Amerika, kua roa nei e whakaaro ana ki te whenua hei hoa.

Ko te pūngao iti te utu te tūāpapa o te ōhanga o ēnei rā. Ahakoa he iti noa te wāhanga o te GDP katoa o te rāngai pūngao i ngā wā noa mō te nuinga o ngā ōhanga matatau, he nui tōna pānga ki te pikinga utu me ngā utu whakauru mō ngā rāngai katoa nā te mea he whānui te whakamahinga.

Kua tata te utu hiko me te hau māori o Ūropi ki te 10 ngā wā i tōna toharite hītori i roto i te tekau tau tae noa ki te tau 2020. Ko te pikinga nui o tēnei tau i ahu mai i te pakanga a Rūhia ki Ukraine, ahakoa i kino ake i te wera nui me te tauraki i tēnei raumati. Tae noa ki te tau 2021, i whakawhirinaki a Ūropi (tae atu ki te United Kingdom) ki ngā kawemai a Rūhia mō te 40 ōrau o tana hau māori me te wāhanga nui o ana hiahia hinu me te waro. He maha ngā marama i mua i tana whakaekenga i Ukraine, ka tīmata a Rūhia ki te whakahaere i ngā mākete pūngao me te whakapiki i ngā utu mō te hau māori, e ai ki te International Energy Agency.

E tata ana ki te 2 ōrau o te GDP te utu mō te pūngao o Ūropi i ngā wā noa, engari kua piki ake ki te 12 ōrau i runga i te pikinga o ngā utu. Ko te tikanga o ngā utu nui o tēnei nui he maha ngā ahumahi puta noa i Ūropi e whakaiti ana i ā rātou mahi, e kati rānei. Ko ngā kaihanga konumohe, ngā kaihanga tongi, ngā kaihanga whakarewa, me ngā kaihanga karāhe he tino pāngia e te utu hau māori teitei. Ko te tikanga tēnei ka taea e Ūropi te tumanako ka pāngia e te hinganga nui i ngā tau e haere ake nei, ahakoa he rerekē ngā whakatau tata ōhanga mō tōna hohonu.

Kia mārama: E kore a Ūropi e rawakore. E kore hoki ōna tāngata e hukapapa i tēnei hotoke. E whakaatu ana ngā tohu tōmua kei te pai te mahi a te whenua ki te whakaiti i te whakamahinga o te hau māori me te whakakī i ana tāke rokiroki mō te hotoke. Kua whakamotuhaketia e Tiamana me Wīwī ngā ratonga hiko nui – me te whakapaunga nui – hei whakaiti i ngā whakararuraru ki ngā kaihoko hiko.

Engari, ko te mōrearea tūturu e pā ana ki te whenua nui ko te ngaronga o te whakataetae ōhanga nā te puhoi o te tipu ōhanga. I whakawhirinaki te hau iti ki te whakapono teka ki te pono o Rūhia, ā, kua ngaro atu tēnā mō ake tonu atu. Ka āta whakarerekē te umanga, engari ka roa te wā mō taua whakawhiti - ā, ka arahi pea ki ngā huringa ōhanga mamae.

Kāore he pānga o ēnei raruraru ōhanga ki te whakawhiti pūngao ma, ki te urupare ohorere rānei a te EU ki ngā raruraru mākete i puta mai i te pakanga i Ukraine. Engari, ka taea te whai i ēnei raruraru ki ngā whakataunga o mua a Ūropi ki te whakawhanake i te waranga ki ngā wahie pūmua o Ruhia, inā koa ko te hau māori. Ahakoa ka taea e ngā mea whakahou pēnei i te rā me te hau te whakakapi i ngā wahie pūmua hei whakarato hiko iti, kāore e taea e rātou te whakakapi ngāwari i te hau māori mō ngā whakamahinga ahumahi—ina koa ko te hau māori wai kawemai (LNG), he mea e kīia pinepinetia ana hei whakakapi i te hau paipa, he nui ake te utu. Nō reira, kāore i te tika ngā ngana a ētahi kaitōrangapū ki te whakapae i te whakawhiti pūngao ma mō te awha ōhanga e haere tonu ana.

Ko te rongo kino mō Ūropi kei te whakanui ake i tētahi ia o mua: Mai i te tau 2008, kua heke te wāhi o te EU ki te ōhanga o te ao. Ahakoa i tere te ora ake o te Hononga o Amerika i te Paheketanga Nui, i tino uaua ngā ōhanga o Ūropi. Ko ētahi o aua ōhanga he maha ngā tau i pau ki te tipu anō ki ngā taumata i mua i te raruraru nui. I taua wā, ko ngā ōhanga o Āhia kei te tipu tonu i ngā tere whakamiharo, nā te ōhanga nui o Haina i ārahi.

I waenganui i te tau 2009 me te tau 2020, ko te tere tipu ā-tau o te GDP o te EU he 0.48 ōrau noa iho, e ai ki te Peeke o te Ao. Tata ki te toru ngā wā teitei ake o te tere tipu o te US i taua wā anō, ko te toharite he 1.38 ōrau ia tau. Ā, i tipu tere a Haina i te 7.36 ōrau ia tau i taua wā anō. Ko te hua whānui, ahakoa he nui ake te wāhi o te EU ki te GDP o te ao i ērā o te Hononga o Amerika me Haina i te tau 2009, koinei te mea iti rawa o ngā mea e toru.

I te tau 2005 tata nei, tae atu ki te 20 ōrau o te GDP o te ao te uara o te EU. Ka haurua noa iho taua moni i te tīmatanga o te tekau tau 2030 mēnā ka heke te ōhanga o te EU mā te 3 ōrau i te tau 2023 me te 2024, kātahi ka hoki anō ki tōna tere tipu ngawari i mua i te mate urutā o te 0.5 ōrau ia tau, i te mea ka tipu te toenga o te ao i te 3 ōrau (te toharite o te ao i mua i te mate urutā). Mēnā he makariri te hotoke o te tau 2023, ā, ka kino te hinganga o te ōhanga e haere ake nei, ka tere ake te heke o te wāhi o Ūropi ki te GDP o te ao.

Ko te mea kino rawa atu, kei muri rawa a Ūropi i ētahi atu mana nui mō te kaha o te ope taua. Kua roa ngā whenua Ūropi e whakaiti ana i ngā whakapaunga hōia, ā, kāore e taea te whakakī ngāwari i tēnei korenga o te haumi. Ko ngā whakapaunga hōia a Ūropi i nāianei—hei whakakī i te wā i ngaro—ka puta he utu whai wāhitanga mō ētahi atu wāhanga o te ōhanga, ka taea te hanga i tētahi atu whakaroa ki te tipu me te akiaki i ngā kōwhiringa uaua mō ngā tapahi whakapaunga pāpori.

He kino ake pea te āhua o Rūhia i tō te EU. He pono, kei te whiwhi tonu te whenua i ngā moni whiwhi nui mai i āna hokonga hinu me te hau ki tāwāhi, ko te nuinga ki Āhia. Heoi, i te wā roa, tera pea ka heke te rāngai hinu me te hau o Rūhia—ahakoa kua mutu te pakanga i Ukraine. Kei te raru te toenga o te ōhanga o Rūhia, ā, ka tangohia e ngā whiu a te Hauāuru te tohungatanga hangarau me ngā pūtea haumi e tino hiahiatia ana e te rāngai pūngao o te whenua.

Nā te mea kua ngaro te whakapono o Ūropi ki a Rūhia hei kaiwhakarato pūngao, ko te rautaki whai hua anake a Rūhia ko te hoko atu i tana pūngao ki ngā kaihoko Āhia. He waimarie, he maha ngā ōhanga e tipu haere ana i Āhia. Engari, he pouri mō Rūhia, tata ki te katoa o ana whatunga paipa me ngā hanganga pūngao kua hangaia mō ngā kaweake ki Ūropi, ā, kāore e taea te huri ngāwari ki te rawhiti. Ka roa ngā tau me ngā piriona tāra mō Moscow ki te huri i ana kaweake pūngao—ā, tera pea ka kitea e ia ka taea anake te huri i runga i ngā tikanga pūtea a Beijing. Ko te whakawhirinaki o te rāngai pūngao ki Haina tera pea ka mau ki ngā mahi tōrangapū whānui, he hononga mahi tahi kei reira a Rūhia e takaro ana i tētahi tūranga iti ake. Ko te whakaae a te Perehitini Rūhia a Vladimir Putin i te 15 o Hepetema he "pātai me ngā āwangawanga" a tana hoa Hainamana, a Xi Jinping, mō te pakanga i Ukraine e tohu ana i te rerekētanga mana kei waenganui i a Beijing me Moscow.

 

Ko te korenga o te kai—me te utu nui mō ngā mea e wātea ana—tērā pea ka nui ake te raruraru i ēnei rohe i te pūngao. Kua pā kino te pakanga i Ukraine ki ngā kotinga me ngā huarahi kawe o te nui o te witi me ētahi atu witi. He take anō kei ngā kamupene kawemai kai nui pērā i a Īhipa kia mataku mō te ngangau tōrangapū e haere tahi ana me te pikinga o ngā utu kai.

Ko te tino kaupapa mō te ao tōrangapū, kei te anga atu tātou ki tētahi ao e noho ana a Haina me te Hononga o Amerika hei mana nui e rua o te ao. Mā te wehe atu i a Ūropi i ngā take o te ao ka pā kino ki ngā painga o Amerika. Ko Ūropi—i te nuinga o te wā—he manapori, he pūnaha pūtea, ā, he pūmau ki ngā tika tangata me te tikanga o te ao e ahu mai ana i ngā ture. Kua ārahi hoki te EU i te ao i roto i ngā ture e pā ana ki te haumaru, te tūmataitinga raraunga, me te taiao, e akiaki ana i ngā kamupene o te ao ki te whakapai ake i ā rātou whanonga puta noa i te ao kia rite ki ngā paerewa o Ūropi. Ko te wehe atu i a Rūhia, tera pea he pai ake mō ngā painga o Amerika, engari kei reira te mōrearea ka tauhohe a Putin (tērā rānei tōna uri) ki te ngaronga o te mana me te mana o te whenua mā te whiu i ngā huarahi whakangaro—tērā pea he huarahi kino rawa atu.

I a Ūropi e tohe ana ki te whakau i tōna ōhanga, me tautoko te Hononga o Amerika i ngā wā e taea ai, tae atu ki te kaweake i ētahi o āna rauemi pūngao, pērā i te LNG. Tērā pea he ngāwari ake te kī atu i te mahi: kāore anō ngā Amerikana kia tino ara ake ki ā rātou ake utu pūngao e piki haere ana. Kua toru ngā utu hau māori i te Hononga o Amerika i tēnei tau, ā, tera pea ka piki ake i te mea e ngana ana ngā kamupene o Amerika ki te uru atu ki ngā mākete kaweake LNG whai hua i Ūropi me Āhia. Mēnā ka piki ake anō ngā utu pūngao, ka pāngia ngā kaitōrangapū o Amerika ki te pēhanga ki te whakawhāiti i ngā kaweake kia mau tonu ai te utu pūngao i Amerika Te Raki.

I te aroaro o te ngoikore o Ūropi, ka hiahia ngā kaihanga kaupapa here o Amerika ki te whakatipu i tētahi porowhita whānui o ngā hoa mahi ōhanga rite tonu te whakaaro i roto i ngā whakahaere o te ao pēnei i te Kotahitanga o ngā Whenua, te Whakahaere Tauhokohoko o te Ao, me te Tahua Moni o te Ao. Tērā pea ka nui ake te tono a ngā mana waenga pēnei i a Īnia, Brazil, me Indonesia. Heoi anō, he uaua ki te whakakapi i a Ūropi. Kua roa te United States e whai hua ana i ngā pānga ōhanga me ngā māramatanga tahi me te whenua. Ki te heke te taumaha ōhanga o Ūropi i nāianei, ka kaha ake te ātete a te United States ki tana tirohanga mō tētahi tikanga o te ao whānui e tautoko ana i te manapori.